AGP Executive Report

Agriculture Push: Azerbaijan unveiled its 2026–2030 state program for agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture, aiming to boost food independence and shift support toward output and processing. IsDB in Baku: Preparations are under way for the 2026 IsDB Group Annual Meetings (16–19 June), with a startup pitch competition bootcamp starting 14 June and results due 17 June. US-Azerbaijan Dealmaking: Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov met U.S. DFC CEO Ben Blak to expand investment and transit cooperation, including implementation of the TRIPP connectivity project. Logistics Upgrade: Alat Free Economic Zone’s cargo airport is set for next year, reinforcing Azerbaijan’s push to move from transit to high-value supply-chain services. Finance Tech: Azerbaijan’s Central Bank discussed using AI and digital tools for financial supervision with Kazakhstan’s financial regulator. Competition Policy: Turkic states’ antitrust leaders met in Shusha, agreeing on joint priorities, a sectoral investigation and new working groups. Energy Watch: Azeri Light crude fell about 6.6% to $90.5/bbl amid global market weakness. Health & Society: Azerbaijan plans two new blood bank branches in Karabakh and East Zangezur, as donor numbers rise. Regional Links: Azerbaijan and Bulgaria discussed energy cooperation, including the green energy corridor and SOCAR gas supplies. Azerbaijan–North Flights: Talks on charter flights linking Azerbaijan with the north are at an advanced stage, with tourism, trade and education cited as key benefits.

Azerbaijan–US Economic Talks: Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov met U.S. DFC CEO Ben Blak to map next-step cooperation on energy, high-tech, cross-border logistics and transit, building on the 2025 Washington Summit and a new Strategic Partnership Charter. Alat Cargo Airport: Azerbaijan’s Alat Free Economic Zone is moving toward a dedicated cargo airport next year, aiming to speed multimodal trade and attract high-value sectors. Turkic Competition Push: In Shusha, OTS competition authorities agreed on joint priorities, including sectoral investigations and working groups, with Turkey’s antitrust chief calling for a unified regulatory front. Energy Corridor Update: BP confirmed operational control of the Baku–Supsa pipeline is being returned to Azerbaijan and Georgia state structures, reinforcing Europe-focused non-Russian supply routes. Oil Prices: Azeri Light fell about 6.6% to $90.5/bbl amid a global market slump. Health Infrastructure: Azerbaijan’s Central Blood Bank plans two new branches in Karabakh and East Zangezur and links blood services to the state health insurance system. Regional Business Links: Japan and Azerbaijan discussed energy security and broader economic cooperation, while Bulgaria and Azerbaijan renewed focus on a green energy corridor and gas supplies.

Transport Finance: Azerbaijan and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) signed a $180m loan for “Baku Metro Expansion Project – Phase I,” with a 20-year term and a 4-year grace period, aiming to modernize public transport under international transparency and sustainability standards. Agriculture Push: Regional meetings in Aghdash and Zangilan reviewed Azerbaijan’s 2026–2030 state program for agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture, focusing on productivity, food security, irrigation upgrades and agro-parks. Banking & Oversight: The Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s first deputy met a U.S. Treasury delegation on banking supervision, financial stability, payment systems and regulatory cooperation. Trade & Tourism: Azerbaijan hosted a Pakistan tourism familiarization trip and B2B networking; separate reports also note Uzbekistan securing dedicated showroom space in Azerbaijan’s Turkish Trade Centre for building materials. Media Freedom: Meydan TV was shortlisted for the 2026 Free Media Pioneer Award, despite arrests of staff and ongoing pressure on independent journalism. Energy/Markets: Shell paused its $3bn share buyback program due to securities-law requirements tied to its ARC Resources deal, while oil markets stayed sensitive to Middle East risk signals.

Agriculture Push: Azerbaijan kicked off regional consultations on the 2026–2030 State Program for agriculture, fisheries and aquaculture, with a AZN 5bn, public-private financing plan aimed at higher value output and export growth (up to +33.8% by 2030). Food Exports: Azerbaijan and China signed protocols to expand exports of wild-caught fishery products, aquaculture goods and poultry meat, alongside work on digital customs and mutual certification recognition. Central Banking & Oversight: The Central Bank of Azerbaijan’s first deputy met U.S. Treasury officials to discuss banking supervision, financial stability, payment systems and possible technical assistance. Trade & Market Access: Uzbekistan secured dedicated showroom space for Uzbek building materials in Azerbaijan’s Turkish Trade Centre, plus B2B meetings to deepen commercial ties. Digital & AI Economy: Azerconnect Group signed an MoU to use AI-powered solutions for the Icherisheher historical reserve, including smart tourism services and digital twins. Macroeconomy: Azerbaijan’s GDP rose 1.4% in 2025 to 129.1bn manats, with GDP per capita reaching 12,600 manats. Energy/Industry: ABB won a contract to modernize automation and safety systems on the Buzzard offshore platform in the UK North Sea, citing support for energy security. Regional Logistics: Kyrgyzstan and Georgia focused on Black Sea access and linking the CKU rail route to Middle Corridor transit via Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Economic Shift: Azerbaijan’s non-oil and gas sector now drives 71.5% of GDP, signaling a structural move away from hydrocarbons. Inflation Outlook: ING lifted its Azerbaijan inflation forecast to 5.5% for 2026 and 2027, with price growth staying above 5%. Alat Free Economic Zone: The Economic Council backed Alat FEZ plans, including tourism priorities, while officials said a solar panel plant in Alat will start soon (3 GW then up to 10 GW). Renewables & Industry: Azerbaijan is also pushing green energy via solar expansion and talks on local wind components. Trade & Logistics: Azerbaijan dispatched 984 tons of diesel fuel to Armenia as transit expands. Middle Corridor Momentum: Rail freight cooperation with Iran advanced as the Astara Terminal nears completion, targeting 3.5–4 million tons capacity annually. Regional Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov’s Japan visit highlighted energy security, transport connectivity, and investment ties. Urban Development: UN-Habitat and ADB launched a partnership in Baku to support affordable housing and climate-resilient cities. Energy Security Angle: Türkiye-Bulgaria gas cooperation was framed as strategic for Eastern Europe, with Azerbaijan included in a “Green Energy Transmission and Trade” concept.

Azerbaijan–Armenia Trade: Azerbaijan sent 984 tons of diesel fuel to Armenia by rail (17 wagons), as transit flows keep expanding. Energy & Industry: A solar panel manufacturing plant is set to start in the Alat Free Economic Zone, with 3 GW annual capacity in the first phase and plans to scale to 10 GW. Urban Development Finance: UN-Habitat and the Asian Development Bank launched a four-year partnership (to Feb 2030) to back affordable housing, water/sanitation and climate-resilient cities across Asia-Pacific. Tech & Business Climate: At Baku’s “TECHNOVATION” conference, officials stressed that Azerbaijan’s non-oil sector and digital transformation are driving growth, while AmCham highlighted public-private cooperation. AI Ambitions: A 4SIM executive said Azerbaijan can become a regional AI hub, pointing to SOCAR–Oracle data center work. Regional Connectivity: The Trans-Caspian Forum in Washington put the Middle Corridor’s next phase in focus, with growing US interest in energy, tech and critical minerals. Humanitarian Watch: UNHCR reported global forced displacement fell 3% in 2025 to 41.6 million, but millions remain stuck in long-term exile. Shipping Risk: A fire broke out in a tanker’s engine room off Oman near the Strait of Hormuz; no environmental impact reported.

Azerbaijan Economy: The non-oil sector now makes up 71.5% of GDP, while the economy’s model keeps pushing extra revenues into oil fund and central bank reserves to support stability. Shadow Employment Crackdown: The Economy Minister says results from past tax exemptions for workers in non-oil private sectors helped curb shadow work, and new steps are planned. Karabakh & East Zangezur Incentives: Incentive measures there are under review, with possible extensions of tax, customs, social and utility benefits plus more loan support and human-capital focus. Middle Corridor Boost: Hikmet Hajiyev says the Middle Corridor is shifting from a transport route into a wider geo-economic system, with BTK and the Zangezur corridor strengthening East-West links. Air Corridor Demand: Azerbaijan’s overflights surged as airlines avoid conflict zones, with daily traffic rising sharply since 2022. Tourism Push to China: Azerbaijan Tourism Board opens a Beijing office to grow China as a top source market, supported by visa-free travel. Tech & Business: Google rolls out Gemini 3.5 Live Translate for real-time voice translation, including Azerbaijani. International Pressure: US lawmakers advance a move demanding Azerbaijan release Armenian POWs, while separate reports allege Israeli special forces operated from southern Azerbaijan during the Iran conflict.

Azerbaijan–UK Tax Talks: Azerbaijan and the UK held the first round of talks on a draft convention to avoid double taxation and prevent tax evasion, with a second round planned in Baku this November. Banking for Pensioners: Birbank raised the maximum pensioner loan eligibility age from 70 to 73, allowing cash loans up to AZN 50,000 via branches and digital centers. Formal Economy Signals: Registered employment contracts in Azerbaijan rose to 1,893,084 by June 1, with the non-oil private sector still driving most formal hiring. Growth Watch: The economy was flat in the first five months of 2026 (0.0% y/y), as non-oil growth didn’t fully offset weakness in oil and gas. Energy & Trade Links: SOCAR signed a long-term gas marketing deal for Absheron field volumes starting in 2029 via the Southern Gas Corridor, targeting Turkey and Europe. Gold & Markets: Gold futures on COMEX slipped below $4,200/oz for the first time since March. Digital & Fintech: AzInTelecom showcased SİMA Digital Solutions at Baku’s International Finance and Banking Summit, focusing on biometrics for safer fintech services. Customer Service Standards: Azercell renewed ISO 10002:2018 certification for customer complaint management. Transport Demand: Extra carriages will be added to the Baku–Tbilisi–Baku train from June 11/12 to meet summer demand. Mining Pipeline: AzerGold reviewed progress on the Soyudlu (Zod) gold deposit, including drilling up to 9,000 metres and updated recoverable reserves.

Business Finance & Trade Policy: Azerbaijan expands non-oil export support by subsidizing transportation costs and easing logistics barriers for manufacturers, including Nakhchivan goods. SME Credit Support: A decree shifts powers of the Mortgage and Credit Guarantee Fund to the Azerbaijan Business Development Fund, with interest-rate guarantees and state subsidies piloted until end-2030 (excluding Baku/Absheron). Energy & Infrastructure: bp will transfer operations of the Baku–Supsa pipeline to Azerbaijan and Georgia while staying involved under contract terms; SOCAR also launched energy-market briefings for young media ahead of the transition. Digital Payments: Azerbaijan’s Central Bank is discussing cross-border payments with Türkiye and the UAE using its instant-payment infrastructure. Broadband & Telecom: “Online Azerbaijan” coverage reached 99.7%, while Aztelekom and Huawei helped nearly nationwide broadband access. Food & Agriculture Exports: Azerbaijan’s Food Safety Agency meets Israel to expand food trade and mutual recognition; a delegation also visits China to widen access for Azerbaijani agricultural products. Regional Finance Cooperation: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan central banks exchange supervision know-how, including risk-based oversight and consumer lending rules. Education & Skills: UNEC introduces APTIS-based English assessment with British Council support, aiming for internationally recognized certification. Security/Shipping Impact: Azerbaijan confirms six citizens killed in a Ukrainian drone strike on cargo vessels supporting Russian logistics in the Azov Sea. Armenia Context for Business Risk: Armenia’s election results and alleged irregularities keep regional uncertainty high, with knock-on effects for trade and corridor planning.

Pipeline & Energy Deals: BP says it will hand over operations of the Baku–Supsa (WREP) oil pipeline to Azerbaijan and Georgia, while staying involved under a contract signed about a decade ago. Broadband Push: Aztelekom and Huawei report “Online Azerbaijan” broadband coverage reached 99.7% of the country, with up to 3 million households and businesses now connected. Regional Finance Cooperation: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan central banks agreed to deepen risk-based supervision and share know-how on consumer lending rules, SREP, AML/CFT, and SupTech/AI use. Fintech Integration: Azerbaijan Fintech Association signed an MoU with the Central Asian Fintech Association to boost the regional fintech ecosystem and exchange expertise. Green Energy Planning: Azerbaijan and the ADB discussed a feasibility study for green energy projects linking Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. SOCAR/TANAP Funding: Apollo disclosed another $1bn injection into a TANAP-linked structure tied to SOCAR, signaling continued investor confidence in the Southern Gas Corridor. Trade & Digital Logistics: Kyrgyzstan was elected chair of the UN ESCAP Paperless Trade Council, with Mongolia named deputy, as the region pushes cross-border digital trade documents. Public Finance: Azerbaijan’s strategic foreign exchange reserves hit $88.4bn as of June 1, per the finance minister. Geopolitics With Business Impact: Azerbaijan confirmed six citizens killed in a Ukrainian drone strike on ships supporting Russian logistics in the Azov Sea.

Armenia-EU Pivot: Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract won 49.8% in parliamentary elections, a result seen as a referendum on moving away from Russia and toward the West, with Pashinyan framing it as a “historic victory” tied to peace and regional cooperation. Russia Pressure Claims: International observers and Armenia’s opposition alleged “unprecedented” Russian pressure and interference, while Russia denied Western involvement. South Caucasus Connectivity: Azerbaijan, Türkiye and Georgia reaffirmed strategic ties in Istanbul’s trilateral foreign ministers’ meeting, signing the Istanbul Declaration and highlighting the Middle Corridor, Southern Gas Corridor and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway as trade and energy lifelines. Rail Boost: The BTK railway’s modernization was marked as a new phase for Eurasian connectivity, with freight capacity projected to rise fivefold to 5 million tons annually. Sovereign Finance Watch: Fitch affirmed Azerbaijan’s BBB- rating with a stable outlook, citing strong external buffers, low public debt and SOFAZ-linked energy windfalls. EU Partnership Talks: The EU and Azerbaijan advanced negotiations on a new strategic partnership agreement, with the EU calling Azerbaijan its largest trading partner and investor. Customs & Trade Facilitation: WCO and JICA completed risk-management training and a time-release study program for Central Asia and the Caucasus to improve Middle Corridor border efficiency. Media Rights Concern: Independent journalist Afgan Sadigov was reportedly forcibly taken to Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General’s Office after deportation from Georgia, raising fresh concerns for press freedom.

Armenia Election Watch: Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract won 49.8% in parliamentary elections, keeping Nikol Pashinyan in power and strengthening his push for peace with Azerbaijan and normalization with Turkey—though the lack of a two-thirds majority may slow constitutional moves. Energy & Trade Risk: With Israel-Iran tensions flaring and Hormuz risk rising, Azerbaijan is framed as an alternative supplier, including renewed interest from Japan in Azerbaijani crude. Azerbaijan–Denmark Business: Azerbaijan’s economy ministry met Denmark’s ambassador and Novo Nordisk Azerbaijan to discuss expanding cooperation in health and public-private partnerships. Regional Diplomacy: Jeyhun Bayramov joined the 10th Azerbaijan-Georgia-Türkiye trilateral foreign ministers meeting in Istanbul, highlighting supply-chain and security coordination plus connectivity projects. Cybersecurity Push: Azercell backed the 4th National Cybersecurity Forum, showcasing AI-driven cyber threat detection and centralized security services for corporate clients. Agriculture Finance: A presidential decree expands preferential loans to fishing enterprises via the Agency for Agricultural Credit and Development. VAT & Public Finance: VAT refunds hit 87.3m manats in Jan–May, while treasury payments fell 8.9% over five months. Middle Corridor Momentum: Experts say the Trans-Caspian Middle Corridor is entering a strategic development phase, with workforce and SME support key to scaling trade diversification. Banking AI: Bank ABB launched voice-enabled AI banking assistants, reporting 230,000+ users and 2.5m+ interactions since beta. Environment Milestone: UNESCO added Azerbaijan’s Greater Caucasus Biosphere Reserve to its World Network of Biosphere Reserves.

Armenia-EU/Peace Talks: Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan declared victory in the parliamentary election as early results put his Civil Contract party at about 54% and turnout near 59%, framing the vote as a mandate to institutionalize peace with Azerbaijan and keep moving toward the West. Election Integrity: Opposition and some observers alleged violations and fraud, while authorities rejected the claims and reported detentions tied to alleged election-related incidents. Azerbaijan-Russia Trade Push: Azerbaijan’s First Deputy Economy Minister Elnur Aliyev used the St. Petersburg Economic Forum to expand trade and logistics ties with Russia’s regions and federal counterparts, pitching Azerbaijani export lists and transit cooperation. Middle Corridor Logistics: A new Eurasian trade reality is driving Middle Corridor expansion via Kazakhstan–Caspian–Azerbaijan–Georgia–Turkey, with freight volumes and containerized transit rising sharply in recent years. US Energy Role: The US signaled a bigger role in Azerbaijan’s pipeline and energy infrastructure and backed Azerbaijan’s push to become a central Middle Corridor node for energy transit to Europe. Iran-Pakistan Trade: Iran said it aims to raise annual trade turnover with Pakistan to $10bn, with plans for ministerial visits once regional tensions ease.

Armenia Election Watch: Armenians voted in a parliamentary election seen as a referendum on PM Nikol Pashinyan’s push toward the EU and peace with Azerbaijan, with Russia warning of economic fallout and tightening pressure via export restrictions; Pashinyan’s Civil Contract is widely expected to lead, while the Strong Armenia bloc (Samvel Karapetyan) and other pro-Russia rivals fight for influence amid allegations of vote-buying and arrests. US–Azerbaijan Energy & Transit: The US signaled a bigger role in Azerbaijan’s pipeline and energy infrastructure and in expanding the Middle Corridor, with officials pointing to existing US company activity and plans to deepen Azerbaijan’s position as a transit node. EBRD Riga Session: Azerbaijan’s economy officials joined EBRD discussions on conflict-affected recovery, emphasizing that post-conflict rebuilding should also revive private sector activity and sustainable growth. Regional Connectivity Talks: Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Georgia will meet in Istanbul to review cooperation on transport, transit networks, energy security and trade. Diaspora & Smart Cities: Azerbaijan’s engineers forum in Hamburg highlighted smart city and digital transformation ideas, including projects in liberated territories. Aviation Note: IATA urged Uzbekistan to adopt a unified aviation strategy and airport master plan—useful context for regional connectivity planning. World Environment Day (Business Angle): Climate action coverage highlighted corporate energy transitions, including a diesel-to-CNG shift by BAT Nigeria.

Energy & Diplomacy: SOCAR is positioning Azerbaijan as a key gas buffer for Israel’s regional supply chain, with stakes in Israel-linked projects, LNG shipments to Egypt, and talks to expand into Egypt and Jordan—showcased at the 31st Baku Energy Forum and the first Azerbaijan–US Economic Dialogue. Climate & Policy: Azerbaijan is hosting World Environment Day in Baku, while global messaging keeps pushing from pledges to action; the Caspian Sea’s shrinking levels are also flagged as an urgent regional risk for ecosystems and ports. Agribusiness: Azerbaijan and Moldova are expanding agricultural cooperation, including food security, climate adaptation, tech transfer, and plans to boost trade and winemaking ties. Sustainability Events: Azerbaijan joined the Zero Waste Forum in Istanbul with a national pavilion, aligning business and public initiatives ahead of COP31. AI & Education: ChatGPT leads Azerbaijan’s AI chatbot market (79.52% in May), and a new OpenAI-linked memorandum targets AI-based adaptive learning for 500,000+ students. Regional Logistics: WFP says fortified biscuits reached Afghanistan via a long detour through nine countries, including Azerbaijan, after disruptions around the Afghanistan–Pakistan border and the Strait of Hormuz. Security/Trade Context: Armenia’s pre-election arrests of pro-Russian candidates underscore how regional geopolitics is spilling into economic and political decision-making.

Sovereign Finance: Fitch affirmed Azerbaijan’s BBB- rating with a stable outlook, projecting sovereign foreign assets at $93bn in 2026 (about 117% of GDP) as higher oil prices lift the external position and current account surplus. Climate & Environment: UN/UNEP warns the Caspian Sea is set to keep shrinking over coming decades, threatening biodiversity, ports, shipping, fishing and tourism across Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan. Green Transition & Business: World Environment Day coverage highlights climate action momentum, including reports of a 100% diesel-to-CNG shift in manufacturing (BAT Nigeria example) and Azerbaijan hosting the global “Climate Action” theme. Regional Diplomacy & Trade: Russia signals it expects the next “3+3” foreign-minister meeting to be held in Baku or Yerevan, while Putin publicly praised Azerbaijan ties and pointed to ongoing energy-focused talks. EU-backed Local Development: EU funding for Ganja includes support for water/wastewater and street-light upgrades via EBRD and energy-efficiency programs. Azerbaijan in Global Forums: Azerbaijan joined the Zero Waste Forum 2026 in Istanbul with a national pavilion showcasing environmental policy and Heydar Aliyev Foundation projects. Energy/Infrastructure Context: Coverage also ties Caspian-linked transport and energy routes to wider sanctions-era logistics, underscoring Azerbaijan’s role in regional connectivity.