AGP Executive Report

Azerbaijan–Armenia Diplomacy & Energy: Armenia’s PM Nikol Pashinyan says Yerevan is studying electricity imports from partners including Azerbaijan, alongside Georgia, Iran and Türkiye, after Lachin talks between energy authorities. Middle Corridor Trade: Azerbaijan is positioned at the center of the Middle Corridor as demand grows, with Port of Baku cargo handling up 40% in 2025, and digital tools improving cargo tracking and coordination. Banking Expansion: ABB Davr Bank project launched in Tashkent: ABB Bank will acquire a controlling stake in Uzbekistan’s Davr Bank and operate under the ABB Davr brand. Energy Finance/Projects: TotalEnergies completed its transfer of a 10% stake in Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 to NordLine, ending direct involvement while keeping loan reimbursement rights. Regional Trade Signals: Azerbaijan–Türkiye trade turnover fell 3% to $3.28bn in Jan–Jul 2026. SOCAR–China Cooperation: SOCAR met China’s Export-Import Bank to discuss energy-sector cooperation, including oil refining and overseas investment support. Cyber Risk Watch: UK airport operator MAG says hackers accessed data of about 8.7m customers, including contact details and Wi‑Fi sign-ups, without affecting payment data.

Middle Corridor Digital Push: Singapore and Kazakhstan signed a memorandum to boost digital trade and logistics integration along the Middle Corridor, aiming to strengthen connectivity and supply-chain resilience. Demographics Watch: Azerbaijan’s annual births fell below 100,000 for the first time in the past decade, down 42% since 2015—an economic headwind for sectors tied to young families. Gold Trade Fact-Check: A DW Russian claim that Azerbaijan’s gold exports prove a “Russian connection” was challenged by comparing production figures with the role of SOFAZ’s gold holdings. Oil Market Pulse: Azeri Light slipped to about $91.5 per barrel, while Azerbaijan’s 2026 budget assumes $65. Banking Boom: Azerbaijan’s banking sector posted strong first-seven-months results, with operating profit and net profit rising year-on-year, pointing to broader economic activity. AIFC & Investment: AIFC highlighted Central Asia’s investment resilience and the Middle Corridor as a focus for investor protection, ESG and currency-risk management. ADEX 2026 Lineup: Lockheed Martin and SIG SAUER will debut at ADEX in Baku, with 200+ firms from 20+ countries already confirmed. Regional Trade Data: Azerbaijan’s trade with Baltic states totaled $40.4m in Jan–July 2026.

ADEX 2026 Lineup: Lockheed Martin and SIG SAUER will debut at Azerbaijan’s ADEX 2026, joining a growing roster of 200+ firms from 20+ countries; the show also expands with new UK and Germany participation (Rheinmetall) and a first-time use of Pavilion 5 at Baku Expo Center. Middle Corridor Finance: PMCG says the Middle Corridor needs private capital and broader financial infrastructure to unlock faster trade growth, with knock-on demand for ports, terminals, energy networks and digital services. Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Trade Boost: Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan trade turnover hit $795.2m in 2025 (up 3x+ vs 2024), and the two states are pushing a wider “eternal friendship” agenda covering investment and transport links. Energy Talks in Lachin: Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Lachin to discuss cross-border electricity trade and possible infrastructure interconnection. AI for Media Production: InnMedia signed a direct contract with ByteDance’s Seedance to integrate generative video creation into its unified content pipeline. Non-oil Exports: Azerbaijani pomegranate juice entered the Dominican market via Poti Port, supporting diversification beyond oil. Tourism Push: A new state tourism program targets 3.8m visitors by 2030, after first-half arrivals fell 10.3%. Regional Trade Snapshot: Azerbaijan’s trade with Baltic states totaled $40.44m in Jan–Jul 2026, down 23.8% year-on-year.

Armenia–EU Pivot: Nikol Pashinyan says Armenia will apply for EU membership “in the near future,” followed by a referendum, as Yerevan further distances from Russia. Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Dealflow: Ilham Aliyev and Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a Treaty on Eternal Friendship in Tashkent, set a $1bn trade target, and pushed Middle Corridor and investment cooperation. Banking Expansion: Azerbaijan’s International Bank of Azerbaijan (ABB) buys 51% of Uzbekistan’s Davr Bank in a deal worth about €86m, aiming to boost SME lending and cross-border clearing. Digital Finance & Regulation: Azerbaijan’s Central Bank deputy governor discussed AI and tokenization regulation at the Silk Road Finance & Technology Forum in Tashkent. Energy & Markets: Azeri Light crude slid to about $91.93/bbl; Azerbaijan’s budget still assumes $65 average. Crypto Enforcement: A Baku court ordered state confiscation of cryptocurrency tied to a criminal case, with fines totaling tens of millions of manats. Social Impact: Azercell launched a 2026 competition funding up to AZN 7,000 for women’s digital and economic inclusion projects. Regional Security: Ukraine’s court ordered 12-month extradition detention for Azerbaijani opposition figure Bahruz Gasanli. Maritime Risk Watch: Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic hit a multi-day low amid US–Iran tensions.

Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Deal Flow: President Ilham Aliyev’s Uzbekistan visit is getting major international pickup, with coverage focusing on the “Treaty on Eternal Friendship” and the push to make Baku–Tashkent a stronger transport and economic bridge for the Middle Corridor. Banking Expansion: ABB has entered Uzbekistan by acquiring a 51% stake in Davr Bank, aiming to build a new SME and clearing/credit hub. Mobile Payments & Telecom: Azercell launched Steam top-ups via the Azercell app, and also opened a women-focused social project competition with grants up to AZN 7,000. Energy Talks: Azerbaijan and Armenia met in Lachin to discuss cross-border electricity trade and possible border infrastructure synchronization. Trade & Finance Buffers: Fitch says gold now makes up 36% of SOFAZ assets, supporting Azerbaijan’s external financial resilience. Insurance Growth: Azerbaijan’s insurance market grew 7.3% in Jan–Jul with record premium collections. Crypto Enforcement: Azerbaijan’s court ordered state confiscation of cryptocurrency tied to a criminal case, marking a first in favor of the state. Regional Transport: Georgia’s Poti port hit record container volumes, underlining rising Caspian–Caucasus logistics pressure.

Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan Deal Momentum: President Ilham Aliyev’s state visit to Tashkent delivered the Treaty of Eternal Friendship and a push to lift trade turnover to $1bn while expanding investment and Trans-Caspian transit links. Tourism Push: Aliyev signed Azerbaijan’s first comprehensive State Tourism Development Programme (2026–2030), targeting 3.8m visitors by 2030 as 2026 arrivals fell 10.3% y/y in H1. Maritime & Energy Signals: ASCO’s “Babek” tanker returned to service after overhaul; meanwhile Azeri Light oil slipped to $95.13/bbl. Digital Economy: Azercell launched Steam Top-Up, letting users add Steam funds from mobile balance without extra fees or VAT. Finance & Tech: The Silk Road Finance and Technology Forum in Tashkent opened its second day, focusing on digital currencies, fintech corridors, open banking, and cybersecurity. Global Markets Watch: Bitcoin jumped above $80,000 for the first time since May.

Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan “Eternal Friendship” Deal: President Ilham Aliyev’s state visit to Uzbekistan produced a Treaty on Eternal Friendship and a push to lift bilateral trade to $1bn by 2030, with new banking, energy, tourism, mining and investment projects plus a joint investment fund. Economic Policy & Trade: Azerbaijan’s Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov said the signed documents are key to launching major projects and expanding trade, including SOCAR and AzerGold activity in Uzbekistan. Regional Connectivity Watch: Aliyev said the Azerbaijan side of the Zangezur Corridor work is on track for completion in 2027, with plans for an international consortium to secure traffic and investment. Telecom & Digital Payments: Azercell launched Steam Top-Up, letting users add Steam balance from their mobile account without extra fees or VAT. Legal & Governance: Baku’s appellate court upheld the verdict against human rights defender Rufat Safarov, with the defense preparing a cassation appeal. Energy & Markets: Azerbaijan’s exports to the US rose 52.5% even as overall trade turnover declined, according to customs data.

Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Deal Push: Ilham Aliyev’s state visit to Uzbekistan in Tashkent and Bukhara culminated in signing a Treaty on “Eternal Friendship,” with leaders targeting $1bn in bilateral trade by 2030 and highlighting a fast-growing project pipeline across banking, fuel retail, tourism, housing and mining. Transport & Corridor Momentum: Aliyev said the “Zangezur Corridor” main works in Azerbaijan are actively underway, with the Azerbaijani section expected to be completed next year and a consortium model planned for cargo volumes; he also noted related work in Armenia. Digital Tax Rules: From September 1, Azerbaijan will require non-resident e-commerce platforms providing electronic services to unregistered individuals to register electronically if turnover exceeds $10,000 equivalent, with VAT handled by non-residents. AI for Resilient Infrastructure: The Asian Development Bank is launching an $800,000 technical assistance project on applying AI to disaster-risk reduction and adaptation strategies, including in Azerbaijan. Tourism Outreach: Azerbaijan showcased tourism potential at PATA Travel Mart in Malaysia and WITEX in Kuala Lumpur, seeking new Asian market partners. Energy & Markets: Gold futures rose above $4,700/oz on COMEX, while Azerbaijan’s oil price reportedly neared $97/bbl.

Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan “Eternal Friendship” Deal: Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed the Treaty on Eternal Friendship in Tashkent, framing long-term cooperation and pledges not to let either country’s territory be used against the other, while also expanding work across energy, transport, investment, mining, tourism and agriculture. Trade & Investment Push: Uzbekistan set a target to lift bilateral trade turnover to $1bn, citing tripled trade over five years and a $795m figure in 2025, with a roadmap and investment projects under discussion. Transport & Caspian Connectivity: Aliyev said the Zangezur Corridor is being actively implemented, and Mirziyoyev floated plans for a dedicated Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Caspian corridor with a single operator and faster Caspian fleet launch. New Projects On the Ground: Azerbaijan-backed initiatives inaugurated or launched in Uzbekistan included Davr Bank, a gypsum plant, Landau STEAM schools, SOCAR filling stations, and residential/tourism complexes plus fruit orchards. Business & Legal Watch: Azerbaijan filed a U.S. lawsuit against CNN over a report alleging Israeli operations from Azerbaijani territory, calling it reckless and false. Broader Context: Analysis pieces argue the alliance is turning political trust into regional economic power across the South Caucasus–Central Asia axis.

Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Economic Push: Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan are deepening ties fast, with a major IV Interregional Forum in Tashkent drawing nearly 400 companies and producing new documents across energy, finance, infrastructure, construction and manufacturing; Energy & Retail Expansion: SOCAR plans to enter Uzbekistan’s retail fuel market and invest in a gas-station network, while AzerGold will cooperate on mining and exploration; Agro-Industrial Deal: Uzbek specialists will set up the “Dostlug” intensive fruit orchard in Azerbaijan’s Fuzuli, linking regions through horticulture and food processing; Oil Prices: Azeri Light crude rose to about $97.12/bbl, with budget assumptions still based on $65; Transit & Trade Flows: Azerbaijan continues expanding transit to Armenia, with another rail shipment of Russian wheat and propane moving via Azerbaijani territory, alongside direct fuel exports; Infrastructure Upgrade: A new Kalbajar–Lachin highway is cutting travel distance by about 32 km as construction advances; Tourism Promotion: Azerbaijan showcased tourism and culture at WITEX/WCAF in Kuala Lumpur, using a national pavilion to attract partners.

Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Deal Push: At the 4th Uzbekistan–Azerbaijan Interregional Forum in Tashkent, nearly 400 companies backed new cooperation documents across energy, finance, infrastructure, construction and manufacturing, with Azerbaijan’s Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov stressing private-sector momentum and regional connectivity. SOCAR Retail Expansion: SOCAR plans to enter Uzbekistan’s retail fuel market and invest in a gas-station network, while AzerGold will team up on geological exploration and mining projects. Agro Project in Fuzuli: Uzbek specialists are preparing an intensive “Dostlug” fruit orchard in Azerbaijan’s Fuzuli, with potential links between Syrdarya–Fuzuli and Qashqadaryo–Beylagan for horticulture and food processing. Baku Investment Scale: Baku Mayor Eldar Azizov said over $200bn has been invested in the capital over the past 20 years, positioning the city as a safe platform for infrastructure investment. Oil Price Watch: Azeri Light rose to about $97.12/bbl, while exports to Bulgaria surged 4.5x in Jan–Jul to 358,800 tonnes worth $253.1m. Transport Upgrade: A new Kalbajar–Lachin highway will cut the distance by about 32km, with major tunnel and bridge works already well underway. Transit Trade to Armenia: More Russian wheat and propane are moving to Armenia via Azerbaijan, adding to tens of thousands of tons already shipped through the route. Tourism Promotion: Azerbaijan showcased its tourism and cultural heritage at WITEX/WCAF in Kuala Lumpur with a national pavilion and business-focused presentations.

SME Export Boost: From Sept 1, Azerbaijan will subsidize up to 70% of transportation costs for exporters of non-oil and gas goods (rail/air/sea and Azerbaijani-registered cars), with support capped at 15% of customs value for car/rail/air and 5% for sea—aimed at cutting costs for micro, small and medium firms. Eurasian Connectivity Push: President Ilham Aliyev calls Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan “natural partners” for East-West routes, linking the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan rail line with the Middle Corridor and TRIPP to unlock new transit and trade opportunities. Trade & Logistics Watch: Azerbaijan reported live freight queues at border posts (notably 700 at Red Bridge with Georgia and 134 at Samur with Russia), with monitoring via the State Customs Committee site. Regional Diplomacy: Azerbaijan’s new ambassador to Costa Rica presented credentials, highlighting Azerbaijan’s economic potential and peace progress with Armenia. Human Capital & Digital HR: Azercell won three Brandon Hall Group awards for digital transformation in HR, leadership programs and an AI bootcamp. Energy & Sanctions Pressure: Iran denounced US “economic terrorism” as Washington threatens tougher measures; meanwhile, the UAE suspended financial and economic transactions with Iran indefinitely.

Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Trade & Transport Push: President Ilham Aliyev says Baku and Tashkent are “natural” partners on East–West routes, pointing to the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway linking with the Middle Corridor and TRIPP to unlock new transit and economic opportunities. He also notes the Supreme Interstate Council as a key mechanism for expanding cooperation across transport, logistics, energy, agriculture, education and more. Bilateral Deals with Turkmenistan: Aliyev approved an Azerbaijan–Turkmenistan economic cooperation agreement, with ministries tasked to implement it after entry into force, alongside related energy, defense, customs statistics and food safety documents. Border Logistics Snapshot: Azerbaijan’s Land Transport Agency reports live truck queues at border posts: heavy congestion at Red Bridge (700) and Samur (134), with smaller lines at Mazimgara (7) and Astara (52). Digital & Telecom Business: Azercell won three Brandon Hall Group HCM Excellence Awards for HR digital transformation, leadership development and an AI bootcamp. Energy & Risk Watch: A new analysis highlights how the Hormuz crisis can still ripple into Azerbaijan’s oil sector mainly through global prices and costs, even though exports rely on Caspian routes and pipelines. Public Pulse: A survey finds 88.2% of Azerbaijanis support banning social media access for under-16s.

Tourism Push: President Ilham Aliyev approved Azerbaijan’s State Program for Tourism Development 2026–2030, setting targets to lift tourism’s share in non-oil GDP to 8.6% by 2030 and nearly double foreign tourist spending, while rolling out visa-free expansion to 34 countries, a digital nomad visa, and easier multiple-entry electronic visas. Incentives & Branding: The plan adds subsidy mechanisms for charter and extra scheduled flights, hotel room investment, tour operators bringing visitors, tourism events, and support for micro and small tourism businesses, plus a Tourism Ambassador Program and a health tourism strategy. Industry Growth Tools: Azerbaijan will run tourism innovation competitions (2027–2029) and establish new tourism and recreation zones to improve regional product development. Business & Finance: Mastercard appointed Yasemin Bedir as EEMEA president from Sept 1, 2026, overseeing 81 countries including Azerbaijan. Regional Context: Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan are aiming for $1bn bilateral trade by 2030, with talks also focused on investment and business-to-business links. Human Rights: Two convicts in the Toplum TV case were moved to a punishment cell after protests over lack of drinking water in prison.

Tourism Push: President Ilham Aliyev approved Azerbaijan’s State Program for Tourism Development 2026–2030, aiming to boost competitive tourism products, tighten sector governance, and strengthen branding and marketing. New Zones & Innovation: The plan also calls for three new tourism and recreation zones in 2027–2030, with infrastructure and public-private partnership support, plus tourism innovation competitions in 2027–2029 to fund pilot projects. Real Estate Watch: ABB Bank released an H1 2026 analytical report showing Baku property prices kept rising, with growth slowing and demand shifting toward more affordable areas, especially in land and select residential segments. AI & Education Links: Azerbaijan’s National AI Center led a delegation to UB to discuss academic partnerships, talent development, and applied AI research, including a signed MOU. Regional Trade & Logistics: Georgia increased imports from Azerbaijan by 25%, while Kazakhstan’s Middle Corridor rail work is progressing—yet Caspian port transfers remain the key bottleneck for faster deliveries. Business-Policy Context: Azerbaijan’s authorities approved regulations and the structure of a Small and Medium Business, Investment and Export Promotion Agency, signaling a push to support firms and exports.

Azerbaijan–Uzbekistan Trade Push: Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan held another round of political consultations in Baku, with both sides stressing expanded cooperation in trade, energy, transport and logistics, and implementation of prior agreements. Bilateral Trade Roadmap: Uzbekistan’s Investment, Industry and Trade Minister met Azerbaijan’s ambassador to review trade and investment dynamics and back a roadmap to lift bilateral trade to $1B by 2030, with the 4th interregional forum due in Tashkent on Aug. 22. Caspian Tech Cooperation: Chinese and Azerbaijani technicians jointly deployed seismic instruments in the Caspian Sea aboard a joint venture vessel, underscoring growing cross-border oil-and-gas services. Transit Economy (Food & Fuel): Russia sent another wheat shipment to Armenia via Azerbaijan rail, adding to tens of thousands of tons of grain and other commodities already moving through Azerbaijani territory. Manat Watch: The Economist’s Big Mac Index points to the manat still trading below purchasing-power parity, with the gap narrowing but remaining sizable. Tech Sector Pivot: Azerbaijan is pushing to develop its tech sector and create a more investor-friendly framework for startups and venture funding. Agrifood Recognition: FAO selected Azerbaijani rural women leader Gulbaniz Ganbarova as a “FAO 100 Women Heroes” participant, highlighting agrifood and rural development impact. Legal/Business Climate: Prosecutors sought a suspended sentence for activist Galib Bayramov in a case involving NGO-related charges. Cross-border Compliance & Security: Azerbaijan detained a head of a foreign-operated online casino network in Georgia and brought suspects to Azerbaijan as part of cybercrime operations. Regional Trade Signals: Georgia’s trade with Azerbaijan rose in Jan–July, with Azerbaijan among Georgia’s top import and export partners.