AGP Executive Report

Toplum TV Verdict: An Azerbaijan court sentenced nine journalists and activists linked to independent outlet Toplum TV to 12–15 years in prison, with founder Alasgar Mammadli getting 14 years, drawing fresh criticism from media-rights groups as a politically driven crackdown; lawyers say they will appeal. Public Finance Digital Push: Azerbaijan’s Deputy Finance Minister Himalay Mamishov met Korea’s Fiscal Information Service to study digital transformation of public financial management, including digital control and treasury systems, with a roadmap for implementation. VAT Rule Change: From Jan 1, 2027, non-oil private businesses will be allowed to transfer funds from VAT deposit accounts to the State Social Protection Fund for four years under amended Tax Code rules. Legal Cooperation with Ukraine: Azerbaijan ratified a treaty with Ukraine on legal assistance in civil and commercial matters, signed in April 2026. Energy & Trade Connectivity: Kazakhstan’s KTZ organized a multimodal fertilizer shipment to the UK via the Middle Corridor—rail across Kazakhstan and the Caspian, then through Azerbaijan and Georgia to Poti/Batumi and onward by sea—aiming to boost exports and diversify logistics. Diplomacy & Business Links: Serbia’s deputy parliament speaker met Azerbaijan’s Deputy FM Fariz Rzayev in Belgrade, discussing deeper cooperation in IT/AI and energy and Azerbaijan’s participation in EXPO 2027. Regional Investment: Kurdistan Region of Iraq plans a September investment summit in Erbil with Turkish and Azerbaijani investors across housing, industry, agriculture and AI.

Azerbaijan–Pakistan Business Ties: Ambassador Khazar Farhadov says talks on planned energy-sector investments should soon turn into concrete projects as Baku and Islamabad push trade, transport and industrial cooperation. Middle Corridor Trade Boost: eTIR has started fully digital operations across the Caspian Sea, linking Azerbaijan–Turkmenistan–Uzbekistan to speed customs clearance and improve transit security. Real Estate Process Upgrade: VTB says it will create a registry of cadastral engineers to reduce discrepancies in land and property documentation and speed up transactions. Customs Cooperation: Azerbaijan and Brazil signed a 2026 joint customs cooperation plan as the Brazilian customs chief visited Baku’s customs digital transformation projects. Energy Finance Watch: SOFAZ is reported to be diversifying its portfolio as Azerbaijan’s oil era matures, while deposit insurance and public-debt figures continue to draw attention. Media & Rights: Reuters reports jail sentences for Toplum TV co-founders and journalists in a case raising Western press-freedom concerns. Cybersecurity Snapshot: A Surfshark study says France was Europe’s hardest-hit country for data breaches in H1 2026. Regional Security Context: Multiple reports highlight how Caspian Sea incidents are blurring lines between wider conflicts, with implications for shipping risk.

Court & Justice: Baku Court of Appeal kept hearing appeals by Armenian nationals convicted by the Baku Military Court, with prosecutors arguing for upheld sentences. Media Freedom & Law: Reuters reports Azerbaijan jailed Toplum TV co-founders and journalists for up to 15 years over financial crimes, with defendants saying the case is politically motivated. Energy & Finance: SOFAZ said its assets stood at $72.6bn as of July 1, while reporting a first-half income shortfall covered by reserves; separately, Azerbaijan spent AZN 1.06bn on reconstruction of liberated territories in H1 2026. Trade & Investment: EBRD backed Azerbaijan’s green transition with a near-$1bn investment portfolio; Azerbaijan also established venture capital funds and approved a state duty for managing crowdfunding platforms. Regional Connectivity: Azerbaijan is set to host the Black and Caspian Freight Forum in September, spotlighting the Middle Corridor’s capacity and investment needs. Sports Diplomacy: Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan signed a youth wrestling cooperation deal covering training, sports medicine and talent development. Energy Diplomacy: Iran added Azerbaijan’s AzTV to a “hostile media” list, citing reciprocity concerns.

Deposit Insurance Update: Azerbaijan Deposit Insurance Fund says 83% of individual bank deposits are protected (17% unprotected), with 99.76% of deposits overall covered; it also plans more instant compensation via new online payment options and possible AniPay use. Energy & Trade Diplomacy: Germany’s Merz told President Aliyev in Berlin that Azerbaijan can help “receive large volumes of gas,” with Aliyev offering to raise exports to Germany to 2 bcm next year; the visit ended with a strategic partnership declaration across energy, transport and trade. Oil Prices: Azeri Light crude slipped to about $102.7/bbl after $109.1 earlier, with the 2026 budget based on $65/bbl. Regional Connectivity: Iran’s ambassador to Azerbaijan said investors are eyeing agriculture and that a railway freight terminal is being followed up in Baku to boost transit cooperation. Armenia-Azerbaijan Tensions: Human rights concerns persist over the condition of Armenian captives in Azerbaijan, with relatives alleging inadequate medical care. Finance & Governance: SOFAZ reported ACG revenues near AZN 4.4bn and said assets stood at $72.6bn as of July 1. Sports Business Angle: F1 Bahrain GP is set to be hosted in Malaysia in October, with Sepang expected to gain tourism and investment visibility.

Energy & Trade Diplomacy: In Berlin, President Ilham Aliyev and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz backed a strategic partnership aimed at boosting gas supplies to Europe, with Aliyev signaling Azerbaijan could raise exports to Germany to 2 bcm next year. Deposit Insurance & Digital Payments: Azerbaijan’s Deposit Insurance Fund says 83% of individual bank deposits are protected (99.76% protected overall by volume) and is expanding online compensation payments, including via its website and terminals, with AniPay under consideration. Law & Finance: President Ilham Aliyev signed the Law “On Crowdfunding,” setting rules for equity- and debt-based crowdfunding platforms, with entry into force six months after publication. Banking Safety Net: The Deposit Insurance Fund also outlined how compensation works after Central Bank notifications and initial public announcements, with depositors able to apply within one year (extendable up to five). Regional Connectivity: Iran’s ambassador to Azerbaijan said Azerbaijani investors are eyeing agriculture and that follow-up on a planned railway freight terminal in Baku is underway. Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Process: Pashinyan and Macron discussed the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, stressing sustainable peace and expanded trade and economic cooperation. EU Finance: EBRD reported its Azerbaijan portfolio at 892m euros (36 active projects), with 90% in sustainable infrastructure. Oil Market: Azeri Light crude prices moved sharply—down to about $102.73/bbl in one report, then up to $109.10/bbl in another—against a 2026 budget assumption of $65.

Deposit Safety & Digital Banking: Azerbaijan Deposit Insurance Fund says 83% of individual bank deposits are protected (99.76% overall protected), and it’s rolling out online payment options so citizens can pay and later receive compensation through the fund’s website and terminals. Crowdfunding Law: President Ilham Aliyev signed the Law “On Crowdfunding,” setting rules for equity and debt crowdfunding platforms and state oversight. Energy Markets: Azeri Light crude price slipped to about $102.73/bbl after falling from $109.10, while earlier it had surged above $100—another reminder how budget planning stays tied to oil swings. Oil & Finance Pipeline: EBRD reports its active Azerbaijan portfolio at €892m (36 projects), with most funding in sustainable infrastructure. Cross-border Trade Link: Iran’s ambassador in Baku says Azerbaijani investors are eyeing agriculture and that a railway freight terminal is being pushed to boost transit and economic cooperation. Regional Security & Business Risk: Reports of Ukraine strikes on an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea add uncertainty to regional shipping and energy logistics. Policy & Stability: Azerbaijan and Armenia peace-process talks keep featuring in high-level calls, with Pashinyan and Macron discussing steps toward lasting South Caucasus peace.

Deposit Insurance Digital Push: Azerbaijan’s Deposit Insurance Fund says 83% of individual deposits in active banks are protected (17% unprotected), and it’s moving to online payments and is considering AniPay for faster compensation. New Law for Crowdfunding: President Ilham Aliyev signed the Law “On Crowdfunding,” setting rules for equity and debt crowdfunding platforms, with the law taking effect six months after publication. Oil Market Watch: Azeri Light crude slipped to about $102.73 per barrel after falling $6.37 (5.8%), while earlier it had jumped back above $109. EBRD Funding Momentum: EBRD’s active portfolio in Azerbaijan reached about €892m as of June 30, with 36 projects and 90% tied to sustainable infrastructure. Armenia-Azerbaijan Court Process: Baku Court of Appeal continued hearings on appeals by Armenian nationals convicted by the Baku Military Court, with prosecutors presenting arguments. Armenian Captives Concerns: Relatives and a human rights activist raised concerns about the health and medical care of Armenians held in Azerbaijani prisons. Regional Logistics Talk: Iran’s ambassador in Baku said a railway freight terminal is being followed up in Baku, alongside interest in agriculture investment. Sports Business Note: Azerbaijan’s futsal team finished runners-up at the European Universities Games in Salerno.

Crowdfunding Law: President Ilham Aliyev signed Azerbaijan’s Law “On Crowdfunding,” setting rules for equity- and debt-based crowdfunding platforms and state supervision; it takes effect six months after publication. Oil Market Pulse: Azeri Light crude jumped 8.5% to $109.10/bbl, up from $100.56, while the 2026 budget still assumes $65—raising near-term revenue expectations. Digital Payments Upgrade: The Central Bank met Visa to expand Azerbaijan’s digital payments infrastructure, cut payment-acceptance costs, and strengthen fraud prevention and risk management. EBRD Momentum: EBRD’s active Azerbaijan portfolio reached €892m (36 projects), with 90% in sustainable infrastructure; total EBRD investment since 1991 is €3.748bn. Energy Finance & Governance: SOCAR’s supervisory board reviewed 2025 audited results and discussed 2026 debt obligations. Regional Business Links: Pakistan and Uzbekistan pushed for stronger trade and investment ties via a business delegation meeting in Tashkent. EU Sanctions Watch: The EU adopted its 21st Russia sanctions package plus parallel Belarus amendments, tightening controls affecting finance, energy, crypto and LNG. Trade/Logistics Context: Azerbaijan’s oil and gas role in regional corridors remains in focus as global energy routes shift.

Digital Payments Push: Azerbaijan’s Central Bank met Visa to expand digital payments infrastructure, cut payment-acceptance costs, and strengthen fraud prevention and risk management. Housing Finance: The Mortgage and Credit Guarantee Fund says Azerbaijan issued AZN 5.4bn in mortgage loans to about 73,400 borrowers, with 67% of recipients under 35. Energy & Trade Links: Turkey is looking to diversify away from Russian energy by pairing Azerbaijani gas with US LNG buildout, after a 15-year deal for 33 bcm. Middle Corridor Logistics: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan plan to boost Uzbek freight via Aktau and Kuryk ports, feeding the Middle Corridor through Azerbaijan and Georgia. Sanctions Ripple in Payments: Korona Pay suspended Russia-to-Kazakhstan/Georgia transfers, while keeping Russia-to-Azerbaijan transfers active. Agriculture Cooperation: Azerbaijan and Russia discussed agricultural ties and water challenges, including drought-resistant crop trials and irrigation modernization. Oil Market Watch: Azeri Light crude pushed above $100 as global prices react to wider energy risks. Mortgage & Banking Sector: Mortgage loans now make up 15.2% of Azerbaijan’s banking loan portfolio, highlighting housing finance momentum.

Azeri Light Oil: Azerbaijan’s Azeri Light crude jumped to $100.56 a barrel on global markets, up $1.83 (1.85%), keeping attention on how higher prices could reshape energy-linked revenues. SOFAZ Portfolio Moves: The State Oil Fund suspended gold sales in Q2 2026; gold still makes up 31.4% of its investment portfolio (178.1 tons as of end-June). SOFAZ Cashflow: ACG field revenues to SOFAZ fell to AZN 4.3749bn in Jan–Jun 2026, while total SOFAZ oil-and-gas agreement revenues rose to AZN 4.9534bn. Energy Shock From Abroad: Middle East tensions are pushing up European gas prices as LNG flow risks linger; analysts also flag broader electricity demand growth through 2027. EU Finance Sanctions: The EU approved its 21st Russia sanctions package, adding 32 banks to a SWIFT transaction ban list—an update that matters for regional payment and trade flows. Azerbaijan–Germany Business: Berlin–Baku ties keep expanding beyond oil and gas, with new cooperation frameworks and an economic council aimed at boosting investment and connectivity. Fulbright in Baku: Finance professor Rasoul Rezvanian received a Fulbright U.S. Scholar award for 2026–27 to research Azerbaijan’s banking sector stability and performance.

SOFAZ Watch: Azerbaijan’s State Oil Fund suspended gold sales in Q2; gold still makes up 31.4% of its portfolio, while SOFAZ assets stood at $72.6bn as of July 1. Oil Revenue Update: SOFAZ said ACG field revenues to the fund in Jan–Jun 2026 totaled AZN 4.375bn (slightly down y/y), and Shah Deniz gas/condensate revenues fell to AZN 423.3m. Energy Markets: Azeri Light jumped above $100 to $100.56/bbl, lifting the global benchmark for Azerbaijan-linked crude. EU Sanctions Spillover: The EU approved its 21st Russia sanctions package, adding 32 more banks to a SWIFT transaction ban; officials also noted some third-country banks were lifted after compliance steps, including Azerbaijan’s Yelo Bank. Azerbaijan–Germany Business: President Ilham Aliyev and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz signed economic agreements and a strategic agenda, with a push to expand gas supplies and transit links via the Middle Corridor. Standards & Climate Policy: Azerbaijan adopted 293 new state standards in H1 2026, and published a draft Climate Law proposing a national carbon registry and emissions trading/carbon tax framework. Private Sector Expansion: GL Group became the first Azerbaijani private operator to acquire producing upstream oil and gas assets in the US (Permian Basin), while Anglo Asian Mining appointed a new independent cybersecurity-focused director. Sports: Sabah FC beat KuPS 1-0 in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League qualifier.

ECtHR Move: Armenian attorney Siranush Sahakyan says a complaint was filed with the European Court of Human Rights on July 19 over Ruben Vardanyan’s 20-year sentence in Azerbaijan, arguing local remedies are ineffective and seeking a positive ECtHR outcome. Energy Deal: GL Group, Azerbaijan’s first private upstream operator, signed a five-year strategic services cooperation agreement with Baker Hughes and also announced it has completed a historic acquisition of producing oil and gas assets in the US Permian Basin, taking 100% operatorship. Azerbaijan–Germany Pivot: President Ilham Aliyev’s Berlin visit produced a “Strategic Agenda” joint declaration with Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with Baku pushing gas supply expansion to Germany while citing EU financing hurdles under the green agenda. Trade & Logistics: Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Economy says a new rail spur will connect the Araz Valley Economic Zone Industrial Park to the Horadiz–Aghband corridor, aiming to cut barriers for investors and speed industrial supply chains. Digital Finance Recognition: Bir, Azerbaijan’s integrated e-commerce, banking and payments ecosystem, was named among the world’s top fintechs in neobanking by CNBC and Statista. Customs Modernization: WCO Secretary General Ian Saunders met Azerbaijan’s PM and customs leadership, praising customs modernization and trade facilitation efforts. Regional Business Signal: Georgia imported $34m of food and beverages from Azerbaijan in Jan–Jun 2026, up 63%, highlighting growing cross-border agri trade.

Germany–Azerbaijan Pivot: President Ilham Aliyev’s Berlin visit with Chancellor Friedrich Merz produced a “Joint Declaration on a Strategic Agenda for Bilateral Partnership,” signaling a deeper, more strategic track beyond oil and gas. Energy Deal Reality Check: Aliyev said Azerbaijan is ready to boost gas supplies to Germany, but EU financing hurdles tied to the green agenda must be removed. Peace Process Signals: Merz and Armenia’s Nikol Pashinian discussed the Middle East and Russia’s war’s impact on the South Caucasus, with Germany urging further steps toward Armenia–Azerbaijan peace. Customs Modernization: WCO Secretary General Ian Saunders praised Azerbaijan’s customs modernization and its role in hosting regional WCO entities. Fintech Spotlight: Bir, Azerbaijan’s integrated e-commerce, banking and payments ecosystem, was named among the world’s top fintechs in neobanking by CNBC and Statista. Digital & Trade Notes: Polygraf AI signed an MoU with Azerbaijan’s IDDA to set up a regional AI Center of Excellence in Baku; Georgia’s food imports from Azerbaijan rose 63% in H1 2026. Business Tech Disruption: Facebook and Instagram reportedly malfunctioned across Europe and the US.

Germany-Azerbaijan Energy Push: President Ilham Aliyev and Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin agreed a strategic agenda to deepen energy cooperation, with Aliyev calling for new European funding for gas pipeline investments as TAP/TANAP run near full capacity. Business Diplomacy Upgrade: The two sides also signed declarations to set up a Germany-Azerbaijan Business Council and an Economic Council, aiming to institutionalize cooperation for companies and SMEs beyond oil and gas. Labour Market Reform: Azerbaijan’s 2026–2030 employment strategy includes a flexible working hours model, drawing on ILO-style practices for sectors like IT, finance and parts of public administration. Cybersecurity Milestone: Azercell became the first Azerbaijani corporate member of FIRST and registered a Telecom CERT, marking international recognition of its incident response capabilities. Transport & Trade Snapshot: Azerbaijan imported 2,456 passenger cars from Georgia in Jan–Jun 2026 (down sharply year-on-year), while Azerbaijan ranked fifth among Georgia’s car export destinations. Energy Market Watch: The IEA flagged risks to oil supply security and falling inventories amid Middle East tensions affecting routes around Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Regional Context: Azerbaijan’s role in global energy markets and Europe’s supply diversification remained a key theme as Germany seeks more gas from Baku.

Azerbaijan–Germany Business Push: President Ilham Aliyev’s Berlin visit with Chancellor Friedrich Merz produced a Joint Declaration on a Strategic Agenda and an agreement to set up a Germany-Azerbaijan Business Council and Economic Council, aiming to institutionalize cooperation beyond oil and gas—into renewables, hydrogen, connectivity and logistics, with Merz also stressing Germany wants to boost gas supplies from Azerbaijan and that wars are reshaping both countries’ security and economic interests. Energy & Transit Reality Check: Aliyev said Azerbaijan supplies oil and gas to Armenia that supports its energy security, while Kazakhstan is reportedly reconsidering Black Sea oil exports after tanker attacks—potentially strengthening the Trans-Caspian route via Azerbaijan and the Middle Corridor. Trade Logistics on the Move: Azerbaijani carriers opened logistics centers in China (Khorgos, Urumqi) to cut border delays, and ABADA said the Zangezur corridor could reduce distances, border crossings and costs for cargo to Europe. Policy for Work & Growth: Azerbaijan’s employment strategy for 2026–2030 includes a flexible working-hours model for selected sectors, and the Economy Ministry met the IMF to discuss forecasts, tax reforms and support tools for entrepreneurship and non-oil diversification. Azerbaijan in Global Cybersecurity: Azercell became the first Azerbaijani corporate to join FIRST and set up a registered Telecom CERT, earning international recognition for incident response capabilities. Azerbaijan Business Signals: Azerbaijan Airlines added a fourth Airbus A320neo to its 2026 fleet expansion, while Azeri Light crude rose to $93.91/bbl.

Employment & Education Push: President Ilham Aliyev approved Azerbaijan’s Action Plan for the Implementation of the Employment Strategy for 2026–2030, with the Labor ministry coordinating and an economic reforms analysis center monitoring progress, while the state also moves to expand preschool access—financing 70% of private preschool fees (up to 350 manats in Baku and 250 in regions) and reporting tens of thousands of children in preschool preparation groups. World Bank Leadership: The World Bank named Sacha Backes as the new Country Manager for Azerbaijan (from August), after Stefanie Stallmeister’s term ended. EU-Baku Business Ties: Aliyev met in Berlin with Michael Harms, head of Germany’s Eastern Committee of the German Economy, highlighting cooperation in energy (including alternatives), the Middle Corridor, logistics, smart agriculture, and tourism. Energy & Trade Security: OPEC’s Charter of Cooperation technical committee held its inaugural meeting in Baku, setting a work plan on market fundamentals, investment, and energy dialogue. Caspian Infrastructure Risk: An OpEd warns that falling Caspian water levels—linked to Russia’s Volga diversions—could threaten maritime trade, fishing, and Russia’s Caspian flotilla, urging littoral states to coordinate. Regional Logistics: Georgia’s Post signed an agreement with Alibaba’s Cainiao to build a transit and distribution network serving cross-border e-commerce flows across the region, with Azerbaijan included in the corridor.